In the grim accounting of a pandemic that has killed more than 2,100 Californians, epidemiologists and sociologists are both clapping their hands and scratching their heads over the relatively low number of COVID-19 deaths so far in Orange County.

Researchers don’t know exactly why, or how, Orange County – which reached a milestone 50 reported deaths Friday, May 1 and reported two more Saturday – saw far fewer fatalities than neighboring counties at the end of what was the deadliest month of the pandemic, locally and across the nation. But it’s a fact.

As of Friday, Los Angeles County had a per capita COVID-19 death rate 7.3 times higher than Orange County’s; Riverside County is 3.9 times higher, while San Bernardino and San Diego counties are both more than 2.5 times as high.

“Some counties do well and some counties do poor,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist and associate professor of public health at UC Irvine and part of an informal task force on COVID-19 in Orange County that includes academic researchers and county officials.

“Right now, we’re in the first group, and it’s not exactly clear why.”

The hope is that the low rate death rate of 1.6 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 Orange County residents will continue even with an anticipated easing of the lockdown that has helped mitigate spread of the novel coronavirus infection. But Orange County experienced a spike in new confirmed cases with 145 on Thursday and 163 on Friday; it reported 99 new cases Saturday.

“It’s a bit mysterious,” Noymer said.  “But we also need to remember that Orange County needs to remain vigilant.”

A number of issues could determine how seriously any particular area is impacted by the pandemic – population density and use of public transit, health conditions and access to health care, large institutionalized populations and socioeconomic factors such as size and composition of a household and types of occupations that put people at greater risk of infection.

Could outbreaks in jails or nursing homes skew the numbers differently later? Are some communities better at social distancing and staying at home, and how long will that last as people grow more restless?