Dreaming. Fairy dust. No interest. Who do I call to complain? Ridiculous.
When we wrote about California's move to ban the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035, those were some of the responses from Barron's readers (some of whom seemed to think we designed the emissions rule). The "ridiculous," however, came from a tweet by Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
His opposition, arguably, matters more. Virginia follows California Air Resources Board, or CARB, emissions standards. He is working to undo that now. That would still leave about 14 states following CARB rules, representing more than a third of the U.S. population.
Just what "ridiculous" means, however, is a mystery. Barron's reached out to ask if the Governor's objection was based on EV technology, cost, the impact on the electricity grid, or the burden it places on traditional auto manufacturers to retool operations. His office didn't immediately return a request for comment.
We understand the knee-jerk reaction to CARB regulations, but believe a lot of the debate isn't as informed as it should be. The reason: The shift from gas-powered cars to EVs isn't just being driven by politics or even by EV pioneer and Tesla (ticker: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk. It's being driven by auto companies and people who actually want to drive the cars.
The Burden on Auto Manufacturers
If traditional auto makers don't really like electric vehicles then it's one of best-kept secrets ever. General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra as well as Ford Motor (F) CEO Jim Farley have committed tens of billions to EVs. GM has spent years developing its Ultium EV platform to help drive down EV costs. Ford has created an entirely new division, Ford Model e, to help drive its EV ambitions.
The rest of the industry is following suit. Roughly half of all capital spending, and more of R&D dollars, will be dedicated to EVs across the entire industry.
There is always the possibility that management teams are only reacting to public policy and they don't really like EVs at all. Still, that's a lot of money to bet if they aren't really all in on it.
And one of the reasons Ford and GM like the idea is they view it as a way to win back the market share they lost over the past two decades. If they can lead traditional auto makers in EVs, there is profit to be had. Investors seem to realize that. Ford and GM shares are up a lot more than Tesla stock or the S&P 500 since recent climate rules were passed.
For those looking to complain about California's new rules, they should start by talking to GM and Ford.
Technology, Cost, and Demand
Not even California can make consumers buy "compliance cars," the vehicles with lousy range, poor performance, and a lack of excitement compared with a car people really want. That's not what the auto industry is peddling. The cars with the highest horsepower and torque are now electric. Porsche and Ferrari (RACE) will eventually produce EVs because they don't want their sports cars dusted by a Tesla Model Y that costs one-fifth of what they do.
It's true EVs are more expensive. But battery costs have fallen roughly 90% over the past decade. What's more, there is essentially no difference in the price of a new Tesla and a new BMW ( BMW.Germany). Even the price difference isn't what it once was. EVs are a few thousand more dollars expensive than cars because batteries cost more than engines and transmissions, but EVs are cheaper to run and maintain.
Worries about commodities are also overblown. There is enough lithium and metals in the world to make EVs. The world didn't run out of copper when everyone got electric lights. Copper got more expensive though. That justified mining more marginal reserves.
All the inflation of 2022 has added, perhaps, $1,000 to the cost of batteries in a single EV. That matters, but it isn't existential to any EV-as-personal-transportation thesis.
This is something to the grid debate. Right now, the amount of electricity required to power up EVs is a rounding error of U.S. electricity demand. But if California has its way, about one-quarter of all passenger vehicles on U.S. roads will be electric by 2030.
The juice for those EVs would amount to somewhere between 25% and 50% of the current demand for electricity. Elon Musk has noted this as well, saying electricity generation will eventually need to double. Utilities will have to respond.
The EV industry needs the utility industry to invest over the coming decade. Given that utilities like to make money, some investment should be expected. If they don't, CARB's goals may actually turn out to be ridiculous.