Where’s The Stock Headed Near Term? Tesla stock is coming off a tough year, having fallen about 65% in 2022. After bottoming at $108.24 (its lowest price since mid-August 2020) on Wednesday, the stock picked up slight upward momentum.

Better-than-expected fourth-quarter deliveries could add strength to this move. On the contrary, a weak number will likely lead to a reversal. The next catalyst could be the fourth-quarter results due in late January. The string of price cuts, not only in China but also in the U.S. and Europe, do not bode well for margins.

When the stock opens for trading on Tuesday, Jan. 3, $110 could serve as support on any potential downside. Further down, the stock has support around the $94.5 level. In the eventuality of the recent bullish momentum accelerating, the stock could face resistance around the $129 and $146 levels.

Expectations Temper: Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who is bullish on Tesla, said in a recent note that he expects fourth-quarter deliveries of 399,000 units. Buy-side consensus is between 410,000-425,000 units, the analyst said, citing the firm’s conversations with investors.

Tesla's investor relations-compiled consensus estimate for fourth-quarter deliveries is 417,957 units, data shared by Black shows.

$TSLA IR-compiled 4Q consensus deliveries is out 418.0K. That seems doable.